The Chief Minister’s emergence as a populist rebel against the policies of his own government is one of the most extraordinary political stunts that I have ever witnessed.
His dramatic interventions on personal tax allowances, the minimum wage and speed limits will please public opinion in an election year and may help to secure his place in history. (Perhaps as the only government leader who was simultaneously head of the opposition).
Alfred Cannan is reinventing his regime with just six months of its term left. He has sacked his long serving, leftish Treasury Minister and hijacked the budget to produce pre-election tax breaks worth up to £1,000 per household.
An agreed ten per cent increase in the minimum wage has been abandoned. A programme to make the 20 mph speed limit the norm in residential areas has been ditched, along with the Infrastructure Minister leading the roll-out.
Coup
This was a spectacular and unprecedented palace coup. But it should not distract us from the overall performance of this administration since it started in 2021, for which the Chief Minister is ultimately responsible.
The record is a disappointing one. This government is a candidate for the hotly contested title of Worst Ever, and is certainly the most chaotic and politically incoherent.
In its early years, to be fair, ministers dealt boldly with the major challenges of the post-Covid environment and energy price inflation caused by the Ukrainian war. Accommodating refugees from that conflict was a real achievement.
Success or Failure?
And there has been some success in areas such as brownfield regeneration, energy efficiency, sexual offences law, border security, quality assurance in education and public engagement, the annual government conference being a welcome innovation.
This is outweighed, however, by failures on big issues including:
* Affordable housing. The number one issue at the last election yet barely progressed. Meanwhile regulation of accommodation standards in the private rental sector, due to be implemented at the beginning of this administration, has been shelved.
* Economy. The Island has fallen into recession for the first time in three decades. A flagship economic strategy, prioritising quantity over quality in aiming to grow numbers of population and jobs regardless of value, has now been made redundant by AI. The Chief Minister has denied that his government ever had a population target of 100,000, despite clear evidence that it had.
* Immigration. Necessary for certain sectors but poorly regulated, to the detriment of the immigrants themselves and to the economic future.
* Government overspending. An annual structural deficit of around £100 million, paid from reserves, has been made worse by the unfunded personal allowance increases in the latest budget. MHKs voted in favour of this largesse while urging fiscal restraint.
* Health funding. There is still no sustainable long-term plan to support health and social care, the cost of which will continue to rise due to demographic and other pressures. The choice between higher taxes or service restrictions is too difficult for politicians, who find it easier to keep kicking Manx Care for exceeding its budget.
* Accountability. The King Gaming scandal in 2024 was a reputational disaster for the Isle of Man but there is no sign of an independent inquiry into government’s role in enabling and supporting this organisation, which has been investigated as a criminal conspiracy.
Housing
There have been belated attempts to address affordable housing, immigration and government efficiency but without significant results so far. The budget provided another substantial increase for Manx Care, but the question of longer term funding for health and social care remains unresolved.
This government is not the first to struggle at a strategic level but it has been unusually dysfunctional. An unprecedented turnover of ministers and senior officers has led to a lack of corporate experience and consistency.
Its political incoherence has come from the attempt to run a right/left coalition, with the Chief Minister pursuing one agenda and his Treasury Minister following another. Why the controversial Dr Allinson was retained for so long is a mystery; maybe it was because he served as a useful fall guy for the Cannan regime.
Backbenchers
Amongst backbench MHKs, meanwhile, inexperience and a managerial mindset meant there was little critical challenge to policy particularly in the early years of the administration. The misconceived economic strategy sailed through Tynwald with very few dissenting voices.
It has all been a bit of a mess. And a sensational finale cannot be enough to rescue a show that is so shambolic.