It has been nearly a decade since the last red weather warning was issued on the Isle of Man.
The last red warning to be placed on the Isle of Man seven years ago in 2018.
With a rare red weather warning now upon us, Manx.News asked retired Senior Met Officer Adrian Cowin what it all means.
Cowin worked for 40 years at the Isle of Man’s Met Office and was Senior Meteorological Officer until he retired in 2023.
During his career he regularly featured in radio broadcasts and is widely regarded as the island’s foremost expert on weather and climate change.
Adrian told Manx.News that prior to 2018 the last Red weather warnings were issued by Ronaldsway Met Office over a decade ago in January and February 2014.
These were for a combination of severe gales & storm surge high tides leading to significant damage & deep flooding on promenades and in harbours.
A Decade Ago
A red warning was issued for the heavy snow, blizzards and deep drifting in March 2013.
But, he said that the last red warning for severe storm force winds was issued in January 2005.
He also gave reminded us of the highest gusts on record at Ronaldsway, which for January was 91mph on January 8, 2005.
While the highest gust on record for the Isle of Man is 97mph recorded on December 2, 1966.
What Does it Mean?
We find ourselves panicked by thought of a red weather warning, but what does it actually mean?
Adrian explained: “The issuing of a RED severe weather warning is a rare event.
“This level of warning implies that people take action to protect themselves and/or their properties; this could be by moving out of the danger zone temporarily, by staying indoors or by other specific actions aimed at mitigating the effects of the extreme weather conditions.
“There’s a risk to life, widespread significant damage, travel and power disruption and interruption to communication.”
Not Every Decade
Adrian said: “Severe weather events are not uncommon in the autumn to spring period e.g. severe gales, heavy rain, snow, ice or coastal flooding.
“But these normally occur at a level which can be covered by Yellow or Amber weather warnings, for being ‘aware’ or ‘prepared’ respectively, and typically several of these warnings are issued during very unsettled periods of weather.
“On a rare occasion, however, an unusual set of circumstances or an individual extreme weather feature will give a very significant event with higher impacts on normal activities, structures and infrastructure e.g. severe storm force winds, heavy & drifting snow, storm surge high tides.”
Criteria For Weather Warnings
Adrian says that Weather Forecasters continuously study various weather models, and monitor the situations in real-time, to build confidence in the most likely outcomes from a range of possibilities.
For severe weather the Duty Forecasters will be using their experience in addition to guidelines and thresholds to prepare the appropriate warnings for the expected levels of impact.
| Weather Element | Criteria for Red – Severe Weather Warnings |
| 1. Wind | Gusts in excess of 80 mph |
| 2. Rain | 70mm or greater in 24 hrs 50mm or greater in 12 hrs 40mm or greater in 6 hrs |
| 3. Snow/Ice | Significant falls of snow likely to cause accumulations of 10 cm or more. Slippery paths and roads due to accumulation of ice on untreated surfaces; situation likely to worsen. |
| 4. Severe Frost and Ice | Minima of minus 9°C or lower expected. Risk of significant frost damage to untreated / unprotected surfaces & systems. |
| 5. Coastal Warnings | Severe overtopping of damaging waves, with significant volumes of water and debris, onto windward coastal roads and promenades. Moderate to severe flooding in areas surrounding inner harbour areas. |
The development of Storm Eowyn has been followed in the international weather models for a few days, with confidence gradually building that it would become a very deep low-pressure system that would impact the British Isles.
He added: “And, as is usual, several Amber warnings were issued a few days before the expected event and then with further trust in actual evidence and updated models it became clear that an upgrade to a Red weather warning would be appropriate for some areas, including the Isle of Man on this occasion.”
Adrian said that this severe storm force event has been caused by an extremely powerful high-altitude jet-stream over the North Atlantic driving a process known as explosive cyclogenesis i.e. a rapidly deepening area of low pressure.
He added: “Storm Eowyn is expected to fall to a very low atmospheric pressure of only 938hPa by 6am on Friday 24th January, and centred to the northwest of Ireland.”
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